A child sitting on Santa’s lap could not dream up better gifts for Mitt Romney than the ones he got from his chief rivals this holiday weekend.
Though polls show Romney running behind in Iowa and nationally, the man who’s been preparing to win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination almost since the day he lost it in 2008 has seen his fortunes rise considerably as most of America tuned out for the holidays.
Here’s why:
Newt Gingrich is not making his case. Gingrich needed to prove that his campaign is strong enough to take on Romney’s superior operation and disciplined enough to run in the general election. The debacle in Virginia — in which Gingrich failed to get on the primary ballot in the state where he lives — suggests his operation is not up to snuff. The Gingrich campaign’s immediate follow-up move, which included a promise to mount an illegal write-in effort in Virginia and a comparison between not making the ballot to the attack on Pearl Harbor shows the Gingrich operation is still suffering from a discipline problem.
There are still plenty of Republicans who like Gingrich, and the long-term effect of the disaster in Virginia has yet to play out. But Romney was surely sitting pretty this weekend as he watched Gingrich implode.
Ron Paul refuses to go big. Paul’s rock solid base of support is a blessing and a curse. Any candidate would love to have supporters so reliable that a week of stories about the racist newsletters he profited from years ago is expected to have little or no impact on his base. But as those supporters cheer, Paul is crossing his arms and smiling as he’s peppered with questions about the newsletters, showing how risky a general election candidate he would be likely for the GOP.
Monday’s New York Times reports Paul is still refusing to tell the white supremacists who support his campaign to back off.
“If they want to endorse me, they’re endorsing what I do or say — it has nothing to do with endorsing what they say,” is the best Paul could muster in an interview with the Times.
Paul’s right, as far as it goes. Just because some unsavory types back him with money and volunteer time, doesn’t mean he believes what they believe. But the smarter move from a general election perspective would have been to condemn those folks and reject their help in the Times story. Paul seems satisfied to rest on his enviable base — which may just win him Iowa next week — and that’s good news for Romney, who can mop up in an electability fight with Paul.
Romney got the Huckabump. The man who played Iowa so well four years ago — Mike Huckabee — said Sunday that Romney is the man to beat on Caucus Day if the weather outside is not frightful. And a new poll shows he’s holding off both Gingrich and Paul in New Hampshire.
“If the weather is good, Mitt Romney is in better shape,” Huckabee told Fox News Sunday. “If the weather is bad and it’s real tough to get out, Ron Paul would win.”
It’s not exactly a Christmas miracle that Romney’s being predicted to at least do very well in Iowa. Romney and his allies spent very, very big in Iowa to tear down Gingrich and build up Romney and Huckabee suggests the effort has paid off.
It’s not clear yet if Santa’s going to give Romney the gift of clear skies on Jan. 3, according to CNN, but the simple fact that Gingrich and Paul are the pair standing in his way of the nomination at this point shows Romney’s the big Christmas winner.
