As Newt Gingrich surges in the polls against Mitt Romney, despite the fact that many observers think he would be a disaster for the GOP’s prospects, some Republican pundits have re-lit the flame for a new candidate to jump in and save them from a Mitt vs. Newt contest. But there is a serious problem with these fantasies: It is now impossible to get on the ballot in many states.
For the purposes of this discussion, let us assume hypothetically that Newt Gingrich wins the Florida primary next week. This could in turn set in motion an implosion of Mitt Romney’s support among Republican voters across the country, who have never been enthused about this establishment favorite.
A key difference from the epic 2008 Democratic primary battle: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were able to fight it out for so long in such a close contest, because each one’s supporters genuinely liked their candidate, sticking with them through thick and thin. But without such a factor, a Gingrich surge among Republican base voters could simply continue unimpeded.
However, with Gingrich being viewed so unfavorably by the wider voting public, Republicans might want to do everything possible to stop Newt — even, so the speculation goes, abandoning a faltering Romney and bringing in someone else like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or any number of other beloved names.
And this is where the actual primary calendar comes into play. It might be possible to have a candidate jump into the caucus states that are coming up — but this is no guarantee that such a candidate could win those caucuses, which can be dominated by more strongly conservative party activists. And in the more plentiful primary states, the task becomes nearly impossible.
In every primary state up through early April, the filing deadlines have passed. That includes the very delegate-rich Super Tuesday of March 6, when a total of 329 delegates will be at stake in primary states, compared to 104 in caucuses.
Indeed, the first filing deadline to come after the Florida primary will be for Texas — but it is on February 1, the day immediately after the Florida primary itself, and presumably too late for any such scenario. It is not until late April that any contests are held that will have filing deadlines further into February, and even then this is cutting it close.
Thus, for a Republican hero to ride in on a white horse, it would take a scenario that verges on political science fiction: A combination of write-in voting where applicable — and for Romney to fully drop out and endorse this new savior candidate, to essentially bequeath his place on the ballot by telling his pledged delegates elected in this manner to go along with it.
Simply put, such a scenario would be practically impossible to actually pull off. For one thing, would Romney ever actually do it? And even if he did, primary voters might just back Newt instead, when faced with such a maneuver by a desperate political establishment.
Here is the list of primaries and filing dates, via the Federal Election Commission and state government election sites:
Primaries already closed:
New Hampshire –Â October 28
South Carolina — November 1
Florida — October 31
Georgia — November 15
Tennessee — Dec. 6
Oklahoma — Dec. 7
Louisiana — December 9
Michigan — Dec. 9
Virginia — Dec. 22
Ohio — Dec. 30
Wisconsin — Jan. 3
D.C. — Jan. 4
Massachusetts — Jan. 6
Illinois — Jan. 6
Arizona — Jan. 9
Vermont — Jan. 9
Maryland — Jan. 11
Alabama — Jan. 13
Mississippi — Jan. 14
Puerto Rico — Jan. 18
Rhode Island — Jan. 21
Primaries Still Open:
West Virginia — Jan. 28
Kentucky — Jan. 31
Texas — Feb. 1
North Carolina — Feb. 7
New York — Feb. 9
Indiana — Feb. 10
Pennsylvania — Feb. 14
Delaware — Feb. 24
Arkansas — March 1
Connecticut — March 2
Oregon — March 6
Nebraska — March 7
Montana — March 12
Utah — March 15
New Mexico — March 16
California — March 23
South Dakota — March 27
New Jersey — April 2
Caucuses:
Iowa
Maine
Nevada
Colorado
Minnesota
Washington state
Alaska
Idaho
North Dakota
Wyoming
Kansas
American Samoa
Hawaii
Missouri
ed. note: This post originally said that the filing date for North Carolina is on Feb. 29. However, it is actually even earlier, on Feb. 7 — and is done not via candidate petitioning, but by the state party submitting a list of names to state election officials, which is also done in some other states.
