What a difference a week makes.
The data may be a bit sporadic, but the trend isn’t looking good for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney right now — he just suffered a major defeat in the South Carolina Republican primary and is working through messaging problems over the release of his taxes. Romney has had a tepid relationship with conservatives in his party all along, but he’s been able to deal with the problem. But as the primary campaign grinds on, Romney may be facing a new issue: Independent voters are breaking away from him hard.
On Tuesday a new survey from ABC News and the Washington Post showed a massive spike in Romney’s unfavorability. In short, the former governor went from a positive rating (plus 5 two weeks ago) to a starkly negative one (minus 18). The internals of past ABC/WaPo surveys showed that partisan voters were very steady — Republicans had remained at nearly 60 percent favorable while Democrats were in the low twenties. But when it came to independent voters, Romney went from a positive 41 – 34 split to a negative 23 – 51, showing themselves to be the culprit in the overall drop.
Romney Favorability, Nationwide
The ABC/WaPo numbers were certainly more stark, but Public Policy Polling (D) also showed a spike in unfavorability among independents. A small deficit of eight points in December doubled to sixteen in January, at 38 – 54. And other data shows just how fast Romney’s more general crash in favorability came about as the first actual votes of the primary season were cast. CNN and Fox numbers showed an near-even split on both general favorability and amongst independents directly after his New Hampshire primary win. A week later Pew showed him down on the metric 33 – 47.
The trend is especially worrying for Romney because he’s staked his political claim on the idea of electability. That prospect hasn’t gone away with this latest drop among independent voters — even though he’s slipping, he still remains very competitive in a national matchup against Obama. But Romney is essentially digging himself a hole in a year when he should be on the electoral high ground.
