Two new polls show former Senator Rick Santorum with real strength ahead of Michigan’s February 28th Republican primary. Santorum has a six point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a new American Research Group survey of the state, and new Public Policy Polling (D) numbers show an even bigger advantage for Santorum — fifteen points.
“Rick Santorum has all the momentum in Michigan right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling in a release. “But it’s important to note that more than 50% of voters say they could change their minds in the next 2 weeks. There’s a lot of room for this race to shift back toward Romney in the coming days.”
Momentum is the key word. Santorum took the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses on Tuesday of last week, two major wins for the lesser-known and lesser-funded candidate, who was expected to do well in Minnesota but came from behind in Colorado. Santorum also won the non-binding Missouri primary last Tuesday, and while Romney took the Maine caucuses over the weekend, although that result remains muddy as some Maine votes have yet to be counted.
Following his wins last week, Santorum surged in national polling, moving past former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has faded since his win in the January 21 South Carolina primary. Santorum finds himself grasping the very conservative bloc from Gingrich, who was able to overtake Romney by monopolizing the right as candidates started to drop out of the race. From PPP:
Santorum’s winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as ‘very conservative’ at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.
Republican voters aren’t just declining to vote for Gingrich at this point- they don’t even like him anymore. Just 38% have a favorable opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. His numbers are inching back closer to what they were before his surge in the polls began in November.
But this is a starting position. The key will be how the next two weeks of campaigning goes in the Great Lakes State and in Arizona, the other state with a GOP primary on the 28th. As PPP pollster Tom Jensen tweeted, “Much of Santorum’s support still built on personal popularity — 67/23 fav in MI — millions might change that,” meaning that Romney’s campaign and allied super PACs ability to attack Santorum on TV will be a major, major factor. And he may have to fall back on negative ads to ensure a victory in the state he grew up in and where his father was governor.
“Michigan is perceived as a state where Romney really has a home field advantage, but only 26% of primary voters actually consider him to be a Michigander while 62% do not,” PPP wrote in its analysis. “Only 39% have a favorable opinion of George Romney with a 46% plurality having no opinion about him. Romney really doesn’t have some great reservoir of goodwill in Michigan to fall back on.”
The current TPM Poll Average shows Santorum opening up a lead in the state.
The PPP poll used 404 automated interviews with likely Michigan Republican primary voters conducted between February 10th and 12th. It has a sampling error of 4.9 percent.
