Mitt Romney isn’t supposed to lose Michigan.
With deep personal ties to the state, a father who was once its governor, and a campaign-saving win here in 2008, Michigan has always been pretty good to Mitt.
But two weeks out from the 2012 primary, polls show a resurgent Rick Santorum taking control — portending the once unthinkable for Team Romney.
It’s a familiar story line: Romney has continued to have trouble connecting to conservative Republican primary voters, nowhere more so than in midwestern industrial states like Michigan.
Still, Romney’s campaign and its supporting super PACs remain more organized and better financed than his rivals. But while Romney has the money to bury Santorum in a deluge of negative advertising, does he actually have an attack message that can draw blood?
“[He] has all the momentum in Michigan right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, of Santorum’s current position in the state. Jim Thienel, chairman of the Oakland County Republican Party, one of Michigan’s largest counties, said Michigan voters see Santorum as a “fresh face” in the GOP field with a message that’s “starting to resonate.”
It doesn’t hurt that Santorum’s message hasn’t been overwhelmingly negative, Thienel added. “People enjoy the fact that he’s not going negative.” Still, “We’ll see when the guns turn in (Santorum’s) direction,” Thienel said.
And it’s that gun battle that will decide what happens in Michigan. Unlike in his surprising win in Colorado last week, Santorum now has a huge target on his back. To pull off a win in Michigan, he has to fight Romney on the air, said Arthur Lupia, a political science professor at the University of Michigan. “If you see Santorum ads, he has a chance,” Lupia told TPM. “If you don’t, it’s very unlikely he’d pull off (a win).”
Norm Shinkle, chairman of the Ingham County Republican Party isn’t convinced that the polls really show Santorum has a chance, calling his surge a “political pendulum type of thing.” “I like them both,” Shinkle told TPM. But Romney would have to “shoot himself in the foot” to really set off a sustained Santorum surge there, Shinkle added.
Santorum’s campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment on their strategy in Michigan going forward. But Glenn Clark — a member of Santorum’s team in Michigan and head of the Faith and Family Coalition in Michigan — said the former senator is able to go “toe to toe” with Romney.
If Santorum continues to poll well, it’s easy to imagine Romney stepping up the attacks. If Santorum were to eke out a win, it would deal a devastating blow to Romney’s bruised campaign. He’ll be relying on people like Clark to help him get there.
“The whole race changes after a Santorum win in Michigan,” Clark said.
Evan McMorris-Santoro contributed reporting.
