Newt Goes All-In On Southern Strategy Against Rick Santorum

Newt Gingrich
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If Super Tuesday was about whether Rick Santorum could survive to fight another day against Mitt Romney, the rest of March will decide whether Newt Gingrich can continue to compete with Santorum. The former speaker is going all in on primaries in Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi this month, hoping to wrestle away Santorum’s claim as America’s Top Anti-Romney.

This isn’t great news for Santorum, who is politely but firmly suggesting Gingrich get out of the race and give him a chance to consolidate conservative support. Santorum’s super PAC is less subtle — it is openly demanding Gingrich step aside.

“I’m not saying I don’t want him to get out,” Santorum told CNN on Wednesday. “If he wants to get out, I’m all for him getting out. I’m for everybody getting out. I wish President Obama would just hand me the thing, but that’s not going to happen.”

There isn’t likely to be a better opportunity for either candidate to rack up a string of big wins over the frontrunner than the next two weeks, as Romney himself admitted today in an expectations-lowering interview with an Alabama radio station.

“I realize it’s a bit of an away game,” he said, “but I also think we’re going to pick up some support in the states that remain this month.”

Romney may be at a disadvantage, but can’t be ruled out of making a solid showing in the South himself. On Thursday, he scored the endorsement of Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant.

Gingrich, for his part, is focusing his attention on the region like a laser, canceling appearances in Kansas, which holds a caucus on Saturday, in favor of Southern states like Mississippi, where he campaigned Thursday. While the abrupt shift and comments from Newt spokesman RC Hammond that the Southern states “need to go for Gingrich” prompted whispers that the former speaker may be laying the groundwork for an exit if he doesn’t turn things around fast, but Hammond assured TPM that the campaign wasn’t going anywhere.

“There isn’t a caucus or primary that a candidate enters without trying to win it,” he said. Hammond suggested that given proportional delegate rules in the upcoming March states, Gingrich could rack up some delegates even without coming in first, buying him more time.

“Everyone acts like it’s the last two minutes of the Super Bowl game,” he said. “We’re past the third-of-the-way marker and no one is pulling away this weekend. The campaign that finishes hot on the upswing is the one who will win.”

Gingrich has performed best in the South so far, taking his home state of Georgia on Super Tuesday and halting Romney’s early momentum in South Carolina back in January. The campaign is counting on his new pledge to get gas down to $2.50 a gallon and its accompanying energy-focused stump speech to carry the day in its Southern swing, especially given the states’ offshore-drilling industry.

But Santorum, fresh off wins in Tennessee, North Dakota and Oklahoma on Tuesday, is aggressively contesting the upcoming states. Already Red, White, And Blue Fund, the super PAC supporting his campaign, has bought $500,000 of ad time in Alabama and $600,000 in Mississippi. And Santorum got a nice endorsement from San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers, an Alabama native. Santorum campaigned in Pelham, Ala., on Thursday, calling the state the “heart of conservatism” and attacking Romney over his support for a health insurance mandate similar to President Obama’s reforms.

Scott Brewster, Gingrich’s state coordinator for Mississippi, told TPM that he expected Santorum to be a tough opponent.

“Fiscally, [Santorum’s] more liberal than most Southerners, but he comes across as a nice smiling family guy and I think that’s why he’s gained traction,” he said. “But at end of day, I think people are going to make decisions on who got results in the past.”

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