TPM Polltracker

Emerson Poll: Trump Eclipses Kasich, Cruz In New York

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AP Photo / Chuck Burton

The poll showed support for Trump at 56 percent, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) at 22 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) at 17 percent. This represents a considerable drop for Trump since the previous Emerson poll in mid-March, which put his support at 64 percent.

In that same period, Cruz and Kasich have registered astronomical increases in support, surging 10 and 16 percentage points respectively. This corresponds to the nationwide trend by which Kasich and Cruz have consolidated nearly all the support shed by other Republican candidates who departed the field. Each has created a sizable bloc of his own while Trump has struggled to break through an apparent ceiling of support slightly below the 50 percent mark.

This survey still suggests Trump will win more than half the votes cast in New York's Republican primary, an important breakthrough for him. It also highlights how much stronger his position is than that of his rivals.

TPM’s PollTracker Average shows Trump at 54.7 percent, Cruz at 20.3 percent and Kasich at 19.7 percent.

The Emerson poll was carried out from April 6-7 by automated phone interviews. Pollsters surveyed 321 people likely to vote in the Republican primary, with a margin of error of 5.4 percentage points.

About The Author

Conor Dinan grew up in Falls Church, VA, and Paris. He earned his Bachelor’s degree at Oxford University, and contributed articles to the student paper Cherwell and The Isis magazine. He is currently the polling intern at TPM.