Billionaire hotelier Donald Trump leads the Republican field by 16 points, according to a CNN/ORC national poll released Monday.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) have together shored up a slim plurality of voters, however, with 48 percent support between them.
The poll showed support for Trump at 47 percent, while Cruz stood at 31 percent and Kasich at 17 percent. Although Trump’s clear lead is consistent with virtually every nationwide poll fielded since last summer, this survey indicates there is anti-Trump opposition coalescing around his remaining opponents.
The previous CNN/ORC poll, taken late February, showed Trump enjoying an overwhelming lead and a plurality of votes, while four other candidates split the remaining vote. But Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and former Florida Gov. George Bush (R) have left the race since then. The winnowing of the field has clearly bolstered support for Cruz, whose support jumped from 15 percent in February to 31 percent today, and Kasich, who rocketed from 6 percent to 17 percent.
By contrast, Trump appears to have gained little from those changes in the race. Not only has his support decreased by two percentage points, down from 49 percent in February, but his opponents now collectively command a slight plurality of votes.
Nevertheless, Trump enjoys an undeniable and long-running lead. TPM’s PollTracker Average shows Trump at 45.5 percent, followed by Cruz at 23.5 percent and Kasich at 14.6 percent.
The CNN/ORC poll was carried out from Mar. 17-20 by live telephone interview. Pollsters surveyed 397 people likely to vote in the Republican primary, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
Silver lining:
No Dick ‘n’ Liz interviews.
It appears Trump has hit his ceiling of support – as a GOP primary candidate. If the ‘establishment’ Republicans even have an open window with regards to heading off a Trump nomination, it is only a sliver of a chance because I’m betting that at least a small percentage of the supporters of the remaining two would go for Trump – effectively putting him over 50% of the GOP voters. There may very well be a real nasty fight at the GOP Convention. They built that.
Dick lick what!
I can’t wait!
Interesting. Throughout the run up to the primaries the crazy caucus vote stood at about 60-65%. Now it’s 78%. The not-obviously-crazy vote has shrunk down to just 17%. And they still think they’re going to be able to install an establishment figure at the convention.
Exactly, there’s quite likely a % of Cruz voters who are choosing Cruz over Trump simply because they like Cruz more, but not because they wouldn’t vote for Trump. Maybe they like the fact that Cruz has been involved in government for a number of years and feel he has the chops to better advance his political agenda than Trump, or maybe they feel better about his religious convictions. There are many reasons why one might choose Cruz over Trump if forced to make a choice, but it doesn’t mean they wouldn’t be just as happy to choose Trump if Cruz was no longer an option.Both the media and the Republican Party seem incapable of understanding that.