TPM Polltracker

Q Polls: Clinton's Lead Shrinks In 3 Swing States, Trump's Grows In Ohio

Esini8iawj71ztqkwztl
AP Photo / John Locher

The presidential race is closest in Florida, where Clinton holds a two-point lead in a head-to-head match, 47-45. When third-party candidates are included, she polls just one point ahead, 46-45, with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein both polling at 2 percent.

Clinton maintains her leads in North Carolina, 48-46 in a head-to-head match, and 47-44 with Johnson following at 3 percent when third-party candidates are included.

The former secretary of state takes the largest lead in Pennsylvania, where she polls six points ahead, 50-44, in a head-to-head match. With third-party candidates included, Clinton leads 48-43, with Johnson and Stein both at 3 percent.

The businessman slightly enlarged his lead in Ohio, polling three points ahead, 47-44, in a head-to-head match. In a four-way race, he polls five points ahead, 46-41, with Johnson at 5 percent and Stein at 2 percent.

Among Florida voters, the race moved from Clinton +4 in a mid-October Quinnipiac poll to Clinton +2 today. When third party candidates are included, the Florida race moved from Clinton +4 to Clinton +1 today.

Clinton's lead also diminished since Quinnipiac last polled North Carolina voters, moving from Clinton +6 in mid-October to Clinton +2 in a head-to-head match, and from Clinton +4 to Clinton +3 when third-party candidates are included.

In contrast, Trump made gains between Quinnipiac's mid-October poll of Ohio, moving from Trump +1 then to Trump +3 today in a head-to-head match, and moving from a tie in mid-October to Trump +5 in a four-way match.

Clinton's lead remains mostly steady since Quinnipiac polled Pennsylvania in mid-October. Clinton's lead remained at +6 in the head-to-head match, and her lead moved from +6 in mid-October to +5 today when third-party candidates are included.

The Quinnipiac University swing state polls were conducted via live telephone interview from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1. The poll surveyed 626 likely Florida voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent; 602 likely North Carolina voters with a margin of error of plus or minus four percent; 589 likely Ohio voters with a margin of error of plus or minus four percent; and 612 likely Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.

TPM's PollTracker Average for the general election in Florida shows a tossup, with Clinton leading Trump, 47.1 to 46.8.

TPM's PollTracker Average for the general election in North Carolina shows a tossup, with Trump leading Clinton, 46.6 to 45.9.

TPM's PollTracker Average for the general election in Ohio shows Trump leading Clinton, 46.8 to 42.8.

TPM's PollTracker Average for the general election in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Trump, 48.1 to 43.2.

About The Author