Race Tightens In Two Of Four Quinnipiac Swing State Polls

Andrew Harnik

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump poll a point apart in two of four swing states surveyed by Quinnipiac University, while the Democratic candidate maintains a lead in North Carolina and Virginia.

The former Secretary of State saw gains in all four states since Quinnipiac released polls in September and early October, causing the races in Georgia and Iowa to tighten.

The two candidates are tied among likely Georgia voters at 46 percent in a head-to-head match. Trump comes out ahead by one point, 44-43, when third-party candidates are included, with Libertarian Gary Johnson polling at 8 percent.

Trump comes out slightly ahead in Iowa, polling +1 ahead, 47-46, in a head-to-head match, and tied with Clinton at 44 percent when third-party candidates are involved, with Johnson at 4 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1 percent.

Clinton maintains comfortable leads in both North Carolina and Virginia in the recent Quinnipiac poll.

Among North Carolina voters, Clinton led by six points, 50-44, in a head-to-head match and by four points with third-party candidates included, 47-43, with Johnson at 5 percent.

And in Virginia, Clinton held her greatest advantage, leading by 13 points, 53-40, in a head-to-head match, and by 12 points, 50-38, with Johnson at 4 percent and Stein at 2 percent in a four-way race.

The close races in Georgia and Iowa show that Clinton has gained in the two contentious states since Quinnipiac last polled the states in a September poll.

In Georgia, the head-to-head match moved from Trump +6 in September to a tie today, while the third-party-inclusive race moved from Trump +7 to Trump +1.

Meanwhile in Iowa, the head-to-head match moved from Trump +6 in September to Trump +1 today, while the third-party-inclusive race moved from Trump +7 to a tie.

The head-to-head race in North Carolina moved from Clinton +3 when Quinnipiac polled in early October to Clinton +6 today, while the third-party-inclusive match moved from Clinton +3 to Clinton +4.

And in Virginia, where Clinton shows the greatest advantage, the head-to-head race moved from Clinton +7 in a September Quinnipiac poll to Clinton +13 today, while the four-way match moved from Clinton +6 to Clinton +12 today.

The Quinnipiac University swing state poll was conducted Oct. 20-26 via live telephone interview. The results included 707 likely Georgia voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent; 791 likely Iowa voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent; 702 likely North Carolina voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent; and 749 likely Virginia voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent.

TPM's PollTracker Average for the presidential election in Georgia shows a tossup, with the candidates tied at 45.5 percent.

TPM's PollTracker Average for the presidential election in Iowa shows Trump leading Clinton, 46.1 to 43.7.

TPM's PollTracker Average for the presidential election in North Carolina shows Clinton leading Trump, 48.5 to 44.5.

TPM's PollTracker Average for the presidential election in Virginia shows Clinton leading Trump, 49.7 to 39.2.

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