Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by four percent nationally, down from her nine-point lead in June, according to a new Pew Research poll.
The poll of registered voters shows Clinton ahead, 41-37, with Libertarian Gary Johnson polling at 10 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 4 percent.
Clinton’s current lead is smaller than her lead in Pew’s June poll, where she outscored Trump by nine percent, 45-36, with Johnson polling at 11 percent.
The latest Pew poll shows Clinton receiving strong support from women and non-white voters, leading by 19 percent among women (49-30), 24 percent among Hispanic voters (50-26) and 83 percent among black voters (85-2). Both Johnson and Stein polled higher than Trump among black voters, both polling at 4 percent.
Trump’s support remains in white and male voters, where he leads Clinton 45-33 in both subgroups.
Pew surveyed 1,576 registered voters nationally from Aug. 9-16, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent.
TPM’s PollTracker Average for the national election shows Clinton ahead of Trump, 42.8 to 37.9.
I find it interesting that the Pew Poll shows such percentages going to the Libertarians (10%) and Greens (4%) , while showing the Clinton / Trump difference at only 4%. Wondering if Pew uses landlines and is missing any key Democratic demographics (say that three times).
The %'s are mostly the same. It seems like the only big difference is Stein being included in this poll but not in June’s. I hope no one’s getting complacent and deciding to indulge their pique.
Note that the June poll did not have Jill Stein and now 4% point of the 5% drop in Clinton’s lead went to Stein. Trump gained 1% point since June in this poll and is still under 40%. Not a problem.
To be honest, the methodology looks pretty good. They used both cell and landline:
The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted August 9-16, 2016 among a national sample of 2,010 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (507 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 1,503 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 865 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older.
Thanks. In my haste, I didn’t read the methodology. Good methodology all around. With 82 days until the election, Trump is bound to continue making insane statements.