Former reality-television host Donald Trump is beginning to flag in South Carolina, according to an NBC/WSJ poll released Friday. The survey showed the candidate’s lead among Republicans in the state shrinking by 11 points since the same poll was taken in January.
The poll showed support for Trump at 28 percent, still affording him a comfortable lead over second-place contender Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who stood at 23 percent, and third-place contender Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) at 15 percent.
This represents a significant decline in support for Trump since January, while other candidates have made small gains. In January, Trump stood at 36 percent, Cruz at 20 percent and Rubio at 14 percent.
Most South Carolina polling has not shown that Trump’s long-running double-digit lead in the state is slipping. Nevertheless, the NBC/WSJ poll corresponds with a national NBC/WSJ poll released earlier this week that suggested Trump had fallen a few points behind Cruz in the Republican nominating contest.
TPM’s PollTracker Average in the state shows Trump at 34.1 percent, Rubio at 17.7 percent and Cruz at 17 percent.
The NBC/WSJ poll was carried out from Feb. 15-17 by live telephone interview. Pollsters surveyed 722 likely Republican voters with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.
Too late WSJ. The primary is tomorrow.
I don’t think they are goosing the numbers. He is starting to show weakness at a time when other candidates are doing a full court press. So some decline is inevitable.
If they are goosing,it would actually help Trump, as it lowers expectations…either he wins by 5 and he can say that was what was predicted, or he wins by more and he can say he did better than expected.
This is important: this MEANS something, because it deviates strongly from the Polltracker aggregate… or, or, or, it means NOTHING, because it deviates so strongly from the Polltracker aggregate it has to be an outlier… or, or, or, or, it COULD mean something but nobody can agree on exactly what.
“F*** it! We’ll do it live!”, tomorrow.
Thank you.
OMG! He’s only polling slightly lower than #2 and #3 combined!
I think it’s the well-considered analysis that I love most about TPM.