FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver’s latest prediction centers around two key points: Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate have shrunk from 64 percent to 55 percent and so the race for control of the Senate is “pretty darned close.”
That’s from to Silver’s latest analysis of published Monday night. Silver noted that while there haven’t been many shifts in key states for control of the Senate, the biggest shifts have happened in Colorado and North Carolina, where Sens. Mark Udall (D-CO) and Kay Hagan (D-NC) are facing challenges from Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO) and North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis (R-NC).
Silver goes on to note that most of the gains for Democrats “have come from purple states.”
“What’s perplexing is that this has happened right as Democrats’ position on the congressional ballot —probably the best indicator of the national mood— has deteriorated,” Silver wrote.
Silver goes on to note that the change might be because Democratic super PACs have spent more money this cycle int hose states than the conservative counterparts that support Republicans.
“Whatever the reason, the GOP’s path to a Senate majority is less robust than before,” Silver concluded. “They still look pretty good int he “path of least resistance” states. But while West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota are extremely likely pickups, Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana are not sure things. Meanwhile Republicans have fewer top-tier backup options, as states like North Carolina and Colorado have trended away from them. Republicans may need to decide whether to consolidate their resources.”
So basically, he looked at the polling in NC and CO. In CO Udall has always has a consistent lead and the only threat there was pure right wing hype when the swapped out a completely unelectable candidate for one just mostly unelectable. The actual numbers in the race never changed.
In NC, there has been movement, as Hagan’s support is starting to consolidate around her now that the republican primary is fading in the rear view mirror and Tillis is being exposed for being…well, Tillis, ie. the leader of perhaps the most despised legislature in NC in 50 years.
So far this year, Silver’s special sauce isn’t turning out all that special. But at least he is grudgingly admitting that maybe there really isn’t a republican wave out there after all.
Republicans may need to decide whether to consolidate their resources
The GOP is rapidly approaching its “rock and a hard place” moment. If they focus on keeping what they have, they effectively cede the rest of the country, and that doesn’t add up to 270.
If they try to expand, it’s unlikely that they have the resources to retain their existing core…The left has made steady progress down the eastern seaboard, and some progress in the far west a well.
NYT Tracking poll has the chances of either side winning virtually even.
Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium has Dems favored . Projection = 70 percent chance of holding the Senate–80 percent if the election were held today.
The GOP has to run the table and fend off challenges in normally safe states like GA and KY–at the very least, they have to burn through a lot of cash defending those seats.
I don’t get why everyone in the ‘liberal media’ thinks it is a slam dunk for them.
Republicans still have the edge. Here’s why: To get to 51 seats, they’d only have to win in all the Senate races where polling shows them consistently ahead. While holding on in every state where they’re currently favored, Democrats would have to engineer a real upset in one of races where the GOP is favored to win the 50 seats they need.
The states where that’s a realistic possibility are all red: Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana and Kansas (assuming that Orman would caucus with Democrats). There are strong candidates and organizations on both sides in all five of those races (although both Roberts and Orman in Kansas may be special cases). So it’s all about the turnout. Here’s to hoping that the Dems GOTV in this off-prez year is better than ever.