Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) is losing to former reality-television host Donald Trump by three percentage points in his home state, according to a poll from the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling released Monday.
The poll showed support for Trump at 38 percent, followed by Kasich at 35 percent. Languishing far behind them were Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) at 15 percent and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) at 5 percent.
Polling from Ohio has been fairly sparse in the 2016 cycle, with the previous PPP poll taken before Trump had entered the race in June. What pollingdoes exist has shown Trump in the lead since the fall, albeit with smaller margins than he has enjoyed nationwide. Kasich has mostly finished second.
There is not enough data to generate a TPM PollTracker Average.
The PPP poll was carried out from March 4-6 by live telephone interview. Pollsters surveyed 638 people likely to vote in the Republican primary, with a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
Yikes.
If this bears out at the polls on Tuesday, Kasich is beyond toast.
This is a relatively good poll for Kasich. With his home-field advantage and the poor record Trump’s had recently among last-minute deciders, Kasich would now have to be considered the favorite in his home-state (538.com gives him a 61 percent chance of winning in its “Polls-Plus” forecast).
It’s pretty difficult to imagine what his route to the nomination is, however.
How so? The goal here is denying the nom to Drumpf, not winning. If Kasich ekes out a win, he blunts Drumpf’s momentum. Win. Nobody expects Kasich to get the nom.
Those landlines in Ohio are getting a workout, since the average respondent has to take a bathroom break and a nap halfway through the poll.
Kind of the point. Kasich losing to Drumpf by 3 points is not a win, seeking out to otherwise.