Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) held a one-point advantage over independent Greg Orman in a CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday, his first lead since the Democratic nominee dropped out of the race in September.
Roberts leads 49 percent to 48 percent among likely voters, according to the new poll. It was CNN/ORC’s first poll of the Kansas race this year. The poll did not include libertarian candidate Randall Batson, who has been drawing up to 5 percent of the vote in other recent polls.
Former Democratic nominee Chad Taylor was formally removed from the race on Sept. 18.
Other recent polling had consistently shown Orman with an edge in the race. NBC/Marist, released Sunday, gave Orman a 10-point lead. SurveyUSA also put Orman up 5 points this week.
TPM’s PollTracker average currently shows Orman at 47 percent, Roberts at 41.5 percent and Batson at 4.4 percent.
Particularly striking in the CNN/ORC poll are Roberts’ favorability numbers. Exactly half of those surveyed had a favorable view of the incumbent versus 46 percent unfavorable. Sunday’s NBC/Marist poll showed Roberts at 37 percent favorable and 47 percent unfavorable. An Oct. 1 Suffolk University poll showed 39 percent unfavorable and 47 percent unfavorable.
The CNN/ORC poll, conducted Oct. 2 to 6, surveyed 687 likely voters. Its margin of error is 3.5 points.
Have no doubt in your mind: CNN thoroughly believes that obtaining more market share means pandering to conservative confirmation bias and has done everything it can to shift in that direction over the past few years.
That being said, meh, it’s just one poll and it says what it says.
With a sample size of 687, the margin of error would be 3.67%.
And based on the methodology writeup, it looks like CNN’s “likely voter” screen basically assumes Democrats in a state where they rarely have a chance of casting a vote that matters aren’t going to to vote in election where they do.
But hey, keep believing in those likely voter screens, pollsters. Don’t let three consecutive elections where they made your results less accurate deter you.
Well I guess we should expect Orman to close up shop after this news.
I’ve said before and I’ll say it again: CNN’s methodology is finely tuned to produce results that can generate breathless headlines. Like the one they did showing a dramatic last minute comeback for McCain. I’ll always treasure the memories of those stories.
CNN is steadily going down the tubes. Polling like this proves it.