Quinnipiac Poll: Ernst Up Six Over Dem Braley

FILE - In this June 3, 2014 file photo Iowa Republican Senate hopeful Joni Ernst speaks in Des Moines, Iowa. The conservative fundraising group American Crossroads, backed by GOP strategist Karl Rove, said Monday, Ju... FILE - In this June 3, 2014 file photo Iowa Republican Senate hopeful Joni Ernst speaks in Des Moines, Iowa. The conservative fundraising group American Crossroads, backed by GOP strategist Karl Rove, said Monday, July 14, 2014 it is filling in Ernst while she participates in Iowa National Guard training for two weeks. A spokesman said that the group is spending $415,000 on a statewide 30-second television ad that begins Tuesday. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File) MORE LESS
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Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has taken the lead in the Iowa race for U.S. Senate, a new Quinnipiac poll found.

The poll, released Wednesday, found Ernst leading Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democratic nominee for Senate, 50 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. A previous Quinnipiac survey, taken in June, found Braley leading Ernst 44 percent to 40 percent among registered voters.

The new Quinnipiac poll was conducted from September 10 to September 15 among 1167 likely voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. This is the first Quinnipiac poll of likely voters in the Iowa Senate race.

Three recent polls among likely voters show the race to be very close. A CNN poll conducted from September 8 to September 10 found Braley leading Ernst 49 percent to 48 percent. A Loras College poll from September 2 to September 5 found Braley leading Ernst, 45.3 percent to 40.5 percent among likely voters. But a PPP poll conducted from August 28 to August 30 found Ernst leading Braley, 45 percent to 43 percent. The Rothenberg Political Report lists the Iowa Senate race as a pure toss-up. Similarly, The Cook Political Report also lists the race as a tossup.

The TPM Polltracker average currently gives Ernst a 2 point lead over Braley.

Correction: This post originally reported that the new Quinnipiac poll showed a 10-point swing from the previous Quinnipiac poll. The latest Quinnipiac poll was of likely voters while the previous poll was of registered voters.

Latest Polltracker

Notable Replies

  1. Hardly likely. She has been trailing all during the campaign. She hasn’t come close to ever leading

  2. It’s that drop-off Democrat thing. We’ve always known the start of likely voter screens would give the GOP better results. If you’re not helping with GOTV, you’re not helping.

  3. Avatar for marby marby says:

    I hope you’re right. Otherwise, if Ernst can be elected a US senator, I will have to assume that we have descended to a new level of idiocy in this country.

  4. if this is tru the people of Iowa have cornpone for brains

  5. Avatar for tsp tsp says:

    What’s the matter with Iowa?!

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