Joni Ernst Extends Lead To 7 Points In Final Des Moines Register Poll

FILE - In this Sept. 28, 2014 file photo Iowa Republican senate candidate Joni Ernst takes questions after debating her Democratic opponent U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley in Indianola, Iowa. As time runs short in the compet... FILE - In this Sept. 28, 2014 file photo Iowa Republican senate candidate Joni Ernst takes questions after debating her Democratic opponent U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley in Indianola, Iowa. As time runs short in the competitive Iowa Senate race, Democrats are trying to tarnish the centerpiece of Republican Ernstís successful Senate campaign _ her appealing image as a down-to-earth farm girl. (AP Photo/Justin Hayworth, File) MORE LESS
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Just three days before Election Day, Republican Joni Ernst has surged to a 7-point lead in the final Des Moines Register poll of the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Iowa.

Ernst broke the critical majority threshold in the survey, winning 51 percent to Democrat Bruce Braley’s 44 percent among likely voters, outside the margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.7 percentage points.

“This race looks like it’s decided,” pollster J. Ann Selzer told the Register. “That said, there are enormous resources being applied to change all that.”

The news is troubling for Democrats, who view the Iowa contest as central to their path to maintaining their Senate majority.

“If we win Iowa we’re going to do just fine,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) told progressive activists on a conference call on Saturday. “Iowa is critical. There’s no other way to say it.”

The poll featured interviews with 701 likely voters from Oct. 28-31.

The three most recent polls before the Register survey each had Ernst leading by 1 point.

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Notable Replies

  1. What is the record of this particular poll in accurately predicting races in Iowa? Did this poll change their “likely voter” assumptions for this poll, or did their assumptions remain the same as the last 2?

  2. Avatar for bdtex bdtex says:

    That blows. Makes GA a must-win race.

  3. I recognize that this pollster has a generally good reputation, but when you see poll after poll showing this as a 1-2 point race either way, you can see an outlier. This poll does not reflect reality. The only way this poll will reflect the actual results is if it depresses Dem turnout, which it might. With that in mind, I await other polls on this race.

  4. If that dumb cow wins I’m throwing in the towel, America at last will have hit the bottom of bottoms.

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