Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by just 1 point in the battleground state of Ohio, according to a poll by the Columbus Dispatch released Sunday.
Clinton’s narrow lead over Trump, 48-47, is within the poll’s margin of error and indicates a race which is too close to call in the swing state. The Dispatch had not previously polled the race.
Most recent public polls have shown Trump ahead in Ohio, but the state is now a tossup on the TPM Electoral Scoreboard.
The former secretary state leads Trump among respondents who said they had already voted, which the Dispatch compared to Obama’s performance in 2012:
As expected, Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage. Four years ago, President Barack Obama’s lead in early voting was key, because he lost to Mitt Romney among votes cast on Election Day in the state.
TPM’s PollTracker Average shows Trump leading Clinton in Ohio 46.7-45.3 two days before Election Day.
The Dispatch Poll was conducted via mail and surveyed 1,151 registered voters in Ohio from Oct. 27 to Nov. 5, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
I do not know LeBron James…but I hope that whoever knows him gets him to canvass the state to-day and tomorrow.
Given what happened to the Indians, the Cavs and their miraculous Comeback stands out even more dramatically. LeBron was so much of a part of that…and it would be fitting if the THEME of his tour across Ohio would feature the “they said we couldn’t do this” narrative.
For a number of weeks, people have been writing off Ohio for the Democrats. My thinking is “go for it”…as Josh said in an essay yesterday, Hill’s team has some poll-meisters who are far ahead of most of us. She would not have been in Ohio this recently if she wasn’t ready to pounce on it.
I so much hope LeBron does this reach-out to vote for Clinton. He is politically aware. He acted during the time he played for the Heat and the Trayvon Martin shooting occurred.
It’s like Michelle says: Hillary doesn’t play. One campaign brags that it hires the best people. The other just quietly does. They’re not in Ohio because they threw a dart at the map.
Not much discussion on this thread so I’ll go.
For weeks we’ve had little data on Ohio. They only report the volume of early voting and then only once a week (!) while most states report at least semi-daily. The last report was Oct 31, so maybe we’ll get a read tomorrow, one week later than the last one.
If Hillary was +10 in the early vote, and that represents about a significant portion of the overall vote, then she might well win the state. Like Florida, OH cut early in-person voting (favored by Ds) and dramatically increased mail-in voting (favored by Rs) so the read in either state isn’t so easy. But the Ds have adapted in FL and now seem to hold a significant lead, and the same may be true in OH.
MSM wants rating so they talk about a “tightening” toward Trump, but why don’t they talk about this “tightening” toward Hillary? Every discussion about early vote in MSM is prefaced by “not reading too much into it”, but do any polls that add drama they have no caveats. As often as talk about apparent tightening, they should add that the polls could be wrong and Hillary might be running away with it since she’s far ahead in early voting in those same polls, and as confirmed in actual votes cast, and despite some built-in disadvantages the GOP put in place between the two elections.
Hillary could surprise with a larger victory than Obama 2008, with voting patterns slightly shift with smaller margins in the Midwest and larger ones in NC, FL, NV and such. Surprise states could be AZ an GA in her favor and, if she wins by 10 nationally (still a long shot) TX will be too close to call most of the night.
Right you are…
By the way, my son and I are hoops FANATICS…and when, in the 1990s, there was a video of the greatest NBA players of the First Fifty Years, I was in tears when the video finished (especially when Bill Russell helped George Mikan to dais for NBA Centers). So I was especially sympathetic when littlegirlblue opined about Steph and the Warriors.
I felt her pain and LeBron’s elation. The Celtics were my team in the 1960s (especially Russell, Havlicek and the Jones Boys)
I hate to say it but I’m not a huge team-sports fan. The only one I even have a working knowledge of is baseball. More the outdoorsy type, hiking, fly fishing, that sort of thing. It’s a bit of a social handicap to be this way and it’s not a thing I purposely do or anything. Just seem to lack the gene somehow.