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Columbus Dispatch Poll: Clinton Leads In Ohio By 1 Point

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AP Photo / Rick T. Wilking

Clinton's narrow lead over Trump, 48-47, is within the poll's margin of error and indicates a race which is too close to call in the swing state. The Dispatch had not previously polled the race.

Most recent public polls have shown Trump ahead in Ohio, but the state is now a tossup on the TPM Electoral Scoreboard.

The former secretary state leads Trump among respondents who said they had already voted, which the Dispatch compared to Obama's performance in 2012:

As expected, Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage. Four years ago, President Barack Obama’s lead in early voting was key, because he lost to Mitt Romney among votes cast on Election Day in the state.

TPM's PollTracker Average shows Trump leading Clinton in Ohio 46.7-45.3 two days before Election Day.

The Dispatch Poll was conducted via mail and surveyed 1,151 registered voters in Ohio from Oct. 27 to Nov. 5, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

About The Author

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Esme Cribb is a newswriter for TPM in New York City. She can be found on Twitter @emquiry and reached by email at esme@talkingpointsmemo.com.