Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has opened a wide lead over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Democratic contest in Iowa, according to a CNN/ORC poll released Thursday.
The poll showed support for Sanders at 51 percent, while Clinton claimed the support of 43 percent of respondents. This is a dramatic reversal of the result of the previous CNN/ORC poll conducted out in December, which showed Clinton beating Sanders 54 percent to 36 percent.
Nevertheless, the survey is consistent with polls suggesting a tightening race in Iowa. Clinton also has seen a decline in support in New Hampshire, where she has frequently trailed Sanders, even as she continues to lead the contest in national polls.
The CNN/ORC poll surveyed 280 likely Democratic caucusgoers by phone from Jan. 15-20. It had a margin of error of six percentage points.
What does it say of a polling sampling that picks Sanders 51-43 over Clinton but wants Clinton to be the one to run in the General by a margin of 60- 38 over Sanders? Is this an “in my heart I want Sanders but my mind says to vote Hillary” thing?
these polls are all over the board. TPM is also running a story saying hRC is up by 9 in Iowa
Exactly! A 20 point difference between the two. So crazy. These polls for the Dems seem useless.
The perils of “I want to send a message” voting, maybe?
@pmb28: Actually, they had two such stories today – Emerson and Monmouth/KBUR, both showing her up by 9. (Though of course Chuck Todd’s only mentioning this one; better for the “Hillary in trouble” narrative…)
Anybody know the relative reliability of these three? (I realize the most reliable by far for Iowa is the Des Moines Register’s.) Apparently, CNN was way off on Iowa in 2008 – just heard it had Hillary clobbering Obama shortly before he beat her – but what’s the history on all these guys? And I haven’t checked the internals on any of them; independents making the difference? Pushing undecideds? Pollster’s tone of voice?
That’s what makes them so predictive! In Reality World. Sanders is:
(1) sucking Iowa slough water
(2) gaining on HRC by the stroke (There Will Be Strokes!)
(3) dental appliance to orthodontric implant with HRC
(4) slowing pulling away, tho short of surging (Noi Surging!)
(5) so far ahead it’s comical
and no matter which it is, there’s a poll that stands for it!