Hillary Clinton maintained a five point national lead among registered voters over Donald Trump in a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday.
Clinton had 46 percent of support and Trump had 41 percent. The results are the same found in the survey conducted by the same pollsters in late June.
When third party candidates are taken into consideration, Clinton maintains 41 percent of support, but Trump had 35 percent. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson had 11 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein had 6 percent.
The survey was conducted from July 9 to July 13 among 1,000 registered voters reached by phone. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
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You go, girl! Keep on railing at Trump–it’s working!!
So, we have four new polls (not to obsess over them, but…) , as follows: Ipsos Reuters, Clinton up by 12, and steady; ABC, Clinton up by 4, and down fractionally; NBC, Clinton up by 5, and steady; and Rasmussen, Trump up by 7, and steady. Seems to me that PollTracker ought to reflect these developments at some point. And it would be great if PollTracker or a TPM reporter could explain the specific reasons for PollTracker changes when they occur, and not just to describe the methodology.
And just released CNN, with Clinton up by 7, 49 to 42.
Unsurprisingly, Rasmussen has done their normal thing of “curating” their results quite nicely, showing strength for the Republican candidate just as their convention gets underway. From now until just days, or even hours, before the election, I’ll consider their polls - no matter what they show - suspect.
Rasmussen aside, I would like to understand the chart algorithm better. But if you think TPM’s is confusing, give Huffpost a look. Their charts are completely inexplicable. At times I have “customized” a chart that makes no inherent sense (examples in past include showing a 3-point race when several polls over a period of weeks shows no margin of less than 5) to remove the lowest margin poll, only to have the chart project an even closer race. It’s just wacky, making the TPM poll tracker seem quite reasonable by comparison.
Nate Silver has a rather disturbing graphic showing Clinton’s chance of winning down to 65.5%. That means Trump has a 1 in 3 chance. That should motivate every liberal/progressive to vote, get friends/family to vote, register voters, etc. As good as it may look right now, Clinton has been trending lower and lower on fivethirtyeight; we need to leave nothing to chance.
Three national polls today show Secretary Clinton holding leads of 4, 5, and 7%. I (and, I am sure, many other TPMers) are breathing a wee bit easier this morning. We will know more a week from today when the post-RNC convention polls are released.
My prediction (prayer?) is that Messrs. Trump and Pence will NOT receive a significant bounce from their convention.