Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump narrowed slightly among likely voters in the latest iteration of the Ipsos/Reuters tracking poll released Thursday.
Clinton led Trump by four points, 43-39. In last week’s installment of the Ipsos/Reuters poll, Clinton led Trump by five points, 40-35, among likely voters.
Though her lead decreased slightly, Clinton gained three percentage points of support, from polling at 40 percent last week to 43 percent in the latest poll.
With third-party candidates included, Clinton received 42 percent support among likely voters in this week’s survey, with Trump at 38 percent, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson at 6 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent.
The tracking poll was conducted online by Ipsos for Reuters. The survey, conducted July 30-Aug. 3, includes 1,072 likely general election voters with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Really?
TPM is going to be reporting statistical noise now?
For the next ninety some days it will be hair on fire panic and/or Clinton manages to surge back into the lead; a lead that never moves more the 2 point in either direction.
Over at Political Wire the headline is Clinton now leads nationally by ten points (Fox poll) with the major poll analysts from Nate Silver to Sam Wang giving her a 70%-80% chance of winning.
Maybe Josh thinks our constituencies will think all is well and relax.
I am of a slightly different opinion. When Trump is at his most disgusting, there are some effects which are slightly incongruous for me. First, I am disgusted. However, I am also more hopeful that Trump’s menace can be contained when he does the most outrageous things.
My default position is that people do not stay in the same place over such a long campaign, that fluctuations can occur and, most importantly, GOP opposition to Trump is based on more than one thing.
IF GOP opposition to Trump is based on the truism that his mental illness disqualifies him, that’s one thing. However, a substantial element of GOP opposition to Trump is based on polling. If Independents and Swing people and Fence Sitters forget about Trump outrages AS A RESULT OF HIM NOT SAYING DAMNING THINGS, they might lurch back to supporting him more…resulting in a lessening of pressure on the GOP to renounce him.
As much as I am personally insulted by every outrageous and dangerous thing Trump says, those utterances are beneficial to us in keeping the attention of our distracted electorate on point, and polling against him.**
** I am well aware of the dangerous effects of Trumpism to national world security. This is truly the most satanic election I have been witness to, inside and outside the U.S.
FiveThirtyEight’s now-cast has chances of Clinton winning at:
Hillary Clinton
91.7%
Donald Trump
8.3%