CBS/NYT Poll: Clinton Heads Into Election Day Four Points Ahead Nationally

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton boards her campaign plane at Westchester County Airport in White Plains, N.Y., Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2016, to travel to Miami. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
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Hillary Clinton holds four points over Donald Trump nationally in the final moments before the election, according to the last CBS News/New York Times national poll of the 2016 election.

Clinton leads the head-to-head match among likely and leaning voters nationally, 47-43.

Her lead remains at four points when including third-party candidates in the poll, 45-41, with Libertarian Gary Johnson trailing at 5 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent.

Her lead has not changed dramatically since CBS/NYT polled the race last week, conducted in the wake of the FBI Director James Comey’s late October announcement to investigate more emails from Clinton’s private server. In that poll, the former Secretary of State led by three points, 45-42.

The CBS/NYT poll was conducted via live telephone interview from Nov. 2-6 among 1,426 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus three percent.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for the general election shows Clinton leading Trump, 46.2 to 42.2.

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Notable Replies

  1. I wish you would report the Electoral College predictions instead of these rather meaningless national polls. President Obama only beat Romney by about 4 percent (51-47).

  2. If Clinton wins the popular vote by 3 or 4 points, I think it’s extremely unlikely that the Bush v. Gore nightmare could be repeated, with Clinton winning the popular vote and Trump winning the electoral college and the presidency. Gore only won the popular vote by half a percentage point.

  3. I expect to be sleeping soundly with Hillary as Pres Elect by 10:30 PM Eastern Time. I may hang around in the hopes of seeing another Rove meltdown on Fox if Ohio is up for grabs as seems to be the case at this moment.

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