TPM Polltracker

Kasich Surges In New Hampshire, Trailing Trump By Just 7 Points

AP Photo / John Raoux

The ARG poll showed Trump in the lead with 27 percent, followed by Kasich at 20 percent. This represents a significant boost for Kasich, who was trailing Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 13-14 percent in ARG’s December poll and tied with him in the same survey earlier this month at 14 percent. Rubio lost ground as Kasich gained in the poll, falling from 14 percent to 10 percent between ARG's two January surveys.

There has also been an increase in support, in absolute terms, for Trump, whose support has increased from 21 percent in December and 25 percent earlier this month.

The latest poll serves to emphasize how differently from the national contest the New Hampshire GOP primary is unfolding. Both nationally and in Iowa, the central drama of the race has become the competition between longtime frontrunner Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), whose support has surged since mid-December. However, this ARG poll showed support for Cruz at 9 percent, tied with the earlier January poll and down from 10 percent in December.

The ARG telephone poll, conducted from Jan. 15-18, surveyed 600 New Hampshire Republicans and independents. It had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

About The Author

Conor Dinan grew up in Falls Church, VA, and Paris. He earned his Bachelor’s degree at Oxford University, and contributed articles to the student paper Cherwell and The Isis magazine. He is currently the polling intern at TPM.