Nate Silver: GOP Has 60 Percent Chance Of Winning The Senate

AP

In his latest forecast, statistics whiz Nate Silver gives Republicans a roughly 60 percent chance of winning control of the Senate in the November elections.

“Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 — to take control of the Senate, but also doesn’t leave them much room for error,” Silver wrote at FiveThirtyEight on Monday.

The statistician who rose to fame for correctly forecasting the outcome of elections noted that his latest analysis is similar to his previous Senate forecasts which give Republicans a slight edge.

Republicans need to win a net of 6 seats in the Nov. 4 elections order to retake the majority. The fundamentals favor them in several key contests.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Sahil Kapur is TPM's senior congressional reporter and Supreme Court correspondent. His articles have been published in the Huffington Post, The Guardian and The New Republic. Email him at sahil@talkingpointsmemo.com and follow him on Twitter at @sahilkapur.
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