TPM Reader HM makes a very good point. The true politics junkies know that Georgia and Louisiana require run-offs if no one gets a majority of the vote. And there’s one or possibly two races that could plausibly be won by an independent candidate (Kansas and South Dakota). When you figure in that any independent candidates likely won’t show their cards until they know who controls the chamber and you’ve got a very complicated set of factors. Put it all together and I think there’s a better than 50/50 chance, maybe a lot better, that we won’t know who controls the Senate any time in November. Here’s TPM Reader HM …
I think it’s going widely overlooked that, despite all the drama in advance of November 4, it’s doubtful that we’ll learn who has control of the Senate on that date: in Louisiana and Georgia, if no candidate wins 50% of the vote, as seems likely according to, among others, the TPM PollTracker averages (the app is great, by the way), there will be runoffs on December 6 andJanuary 6, respectively. This means that unless the Democrats hold 50 seats or the Republicans hold 51 without either of those two states, control of the upper chamber will depend on new, one-on-one contests that will be the focus of enormous national attention and spending.
It seems to me that, by nationalizing the races, this will probably benefit the GOP, but that remains to be seen. Nevertheless, it makes it quite possible, if not likely, that we won’t know which party has come out ahead for another month, and conceivably until after the new Congress has been sworn in.
All this is, of course, ignoring a scenario in which control is also thrown up in the air by the question of where any independent candidates decide to caucus, whether that’s Greg Orman in Kansas, Larry Pressler in South Dakota, if they’re elected, or Angus King, who has threatened to caucus with the Republicans if they win the majority.
Outside groups are already shelling out money to prepare for the first eventuality, and I’m sure Reid and McConnell are thinking about the second as well.
