Beneath the blast and fury of the presidential campaign, some interesting stuff is happening in the Senate. Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts and Tim Kaine in Virginia appear to be moving back into significant and sustained leads. In fact, one of the peculiarities of the last week is that President Obama’s dip did not appear to pull down Democratic Senate candidates. Possibly even the contrary.
First, Elizabeth Warren. We’ve had four polls over the last week or so, each show a 4-5 point lead for Warren. If you go back another 10 polls, Warren has leads in 8 of of those.
Here’s the trend chart for the race.
Notably, Brown’s popularity and approval ratings are not trending down. He remains popular. Warren, meanwhile, is become more known by state residents but is keeping a strong 10 point net favorability rating.
The key with Massachusetts is that I would say Brown needs at least a tie and more likely a small lead to have any chance going into election day. The state is so Democratic and Obama’s lead is so massive that I would say a tie doesn’t really count as a tie.
Next up, Tim Kaine in Virginia. This is the classic purple state of the moment. Two former Governors, one also a former Macaca-felled Senator. Kaine holds leads in each of the last 10 polls. Also notable, the Rasmussen poll of Virginia that showed Romney with a 1 point lead over Obama showed Kaine maintaining a 7 point margin over Allen.
Here’s the trend chart for Virginia Senate …
There’s also evidence that this pattern — continued Dem Senate strength in the face of an Obama dip — is showing up in Wisconsin as well.
