Obviously, Trump is on the way to a smashing victory. And it’s his home state. Trump is an avatar of what I sometimes refer to as ‘anger management Republicanism.’ Trump’s a party of it; Christie’s a part of it. Giuliani is a part of it. On a smaller scale, Rep. Pete King (R) from Long Island is too. It’s politicians who don’t mess much with sexual/moral traditionalism but have a ‘can do’/authoritarian streak. That works in New York City and the greater tri-state area. Trump is basically its personification.
The margins in New York City and especially the outer boroughs and suburbs is simply shattering. But that’s not a surprise, I think, if you know the area. This is obviously a very blue region. But if you’re not a Democrat, you’re almost certainly going to be a Trump-style Republican. As I said, not a lot of truck with sexual traditionalist politics – more anti-political correctness, ass-kicking, law and order, busting heads and getting stuff done kind of politics. Again, Giuliani, Christie, etc.
These are overwhelmingly white voters, culturally conservative but in a Giuliani sense, not a Ted Cruz sense. In the politics of the Greater New York City area, they’re generally pivoted against white liberals – of whom there are many – and overwhelmingly Democratic minority communities – of whom there are even more – with all the oppositional dynamics that go with that.
So this is very friendly territory for a Trump-like candidate and Trump especially. The other part of the equation though is that a candidate-like Ted Cruz just has very, very little traction. Politics like that barely exist in New York state – a few extremely rich people, some evangelicals spread around the state. But very, very few people. Kasich I suspect is just a placeholder for anti-Trump and anti-Cruz folks. But there’s just not many of those people.
The place is made for Trump. And there’s no one else left on the GOP side who has any traction here at all.
