Too Pessimistic?


TPM Reader CS thinks I’m too pessimistic about how long the current political impasse will last. To be clear, I was not buying into that prediction. But the arguments for it were better than I thought or considered and it’s a very different ten to twenty year outlook than has seemed credible to me. That said, CS

I have to admit I was somewhat taken aback by your (in my mind) pessimistic political prognosis in your posting “How long? Maybe very long“. This is a topic that you are much more on top of than I, but I just can’t envision the continuing Presidential/Congressional stalemate that you’re predicting.

If the Republican’s base consists primarily of aging, white (mostly Christian) men, I would think that as each year goes by, this segment will be increasingly marginalized. Younger voters are polling much more in favor of progressive views. The Latino population (which right now heavily skews Democratic and will probably continue to do so as long as the Republicans fight immigration reform) is the fastest growing minority in the country.

Women voters are skewing towards the Democratic party. The religious right continues to move towards greater irrelevancy, and formerly hot button issues such as gay marriage are increasingly met with a collective shrug. Urban (and more progressive) centers are increasing in population while the rural areas continue to shrink. The average age of the Fox news audience is somewhere in the sixties and getting older.

To put it bluntly, as the aging, angry, white Christian conservatives voters continue to die off and be replaced by younger, more secular progressives, I would think that the tilt towards “blue” would continue on into the indefinite future. And what do the Republicans have to offer, since their primary issue is attacking Obamacare (and look at how that is turning out)? I get it about the gerrymandered Congress, but I would think that the other points mentioned above would eventually outweigh this advantage. Anyway, for what it’s worth, that’s my take. I guess we’ll all have to just kick back and see what happens over the next few years.