This May Not Be Over

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All the networks have called Louisiana. But the margin keeps shrinking. It was over 20 points at the start. But the margin is now down to 6 points – with just under 50% of precincts reporting. A key point here is that the early Trump lead included a lot absentee ballots – which by definition were older votes. None of the networks has retracted their call. But it seems like it will at least be much closer than it first seemed.

Kentucky is also still too close to call. There seem to be some technical problems with the reporting. Remember: this is the first time Kentucky has held a caucus. They switched to a caucus to allow Rand Paul to run for president and senate. But that seems to be closing to. It’s just a four point race right now. And no votes have reported yet from Louisville.

Meanwhile, CNN commentators are now debating whether Rubio’s going gonzo on Trump in the last few days may have backfired. Meanwhile Rubio said in Puerto Rico tonight that he always knew this part of the campaign would be the “roughest period” of the campaign. That is to say, the first 18 states. He’s 1 for 18. Sad!

Late Update, 10:35 PM: Louisiana has gotten very close. It’s now under 5 percent with 70% of the vote in. So that’s close but the narrow lead seems to be holding up. Meanwhile Kentucky is really, really close.

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