I mentioned yesterday that the first two post-Speech polls out of Israel showed a modest bump for Prime Minister Netanyahu — neither the no-effect Zionist Camp/Labor was hoping for or the big bump Likud wanted. Now we have a third poll and it shows no effect at all.
The new poll is from the English-language Jerusalem Post. It shows ZC/Labor with a two seat lead over Likud, identical to the margin a week ago before the speech. 25/23 last week, 24/22 this week.
But the day-by-day breakdown is even more interesting. From the Post write up …
The numbers for the Zionist Union and the Likud fluctuated both before and after Tuesday’s speech. A Panels Research poll taken for the Knesset Channel on Monday predicted 24 seats for the Zionist Union and 21 for the Likud. A poll Panels took immediately after the speech on Tuesday night and Wednesday gave the Zionist Union 23 seats and the Likud 22, while the Zionist Union gained a seat in the poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday.
It is important to remember that these sorts of small fluctuations may simply be noise as opposed to actual movements in response to daily events. But the day-after bump which disappeared on day two is consistent with the small bump measured in those two day-after polls we discussed yesterday.
As I said yesterday, we need three to five days of data to really have a sense of how or whether that played. And we’ll have that by the end of the weekend.
