I’ve mentioned a number of times recently the significant divergence between the national campaign numbers coming from the online tracking polls, often newcomers to the field, and the more traditional premium phone polls. Quinnipiac has had a somewhat GOP leaning sampling approach in the last couple cycles. But their new poll out today puts Clinton 10 points ahead of Trump. Meanwhile the TPM Electoral Scoreboard remains at Clinton 326, Trump 165.
But there are some notable details beneath the topline numbers. Florida has moved back to only a thin Clinton lead (+2.8), based two new polls, one of which is from a GOP pollster and neither of which is particularly well-known. So we’ll have to see if that tighter measure holds up with new, more established pollsters.
Just as notable, South Carolina has Trump up by only 2.6 points. South Carolina! On the one hand that’s amazing. On the other, it’s not that surprising since North Carolina and Georgia are both currently in the toss up category.
