Over the weekend I wrote a post which I said would be part of a series on Russia. That’s coming. But the first post led to a brief interchange with TPM Reader BS, which I wanted to share here in full, his notes and my replies.
From TPM Reader BS …
Hi great post on Russia.
I wanted to add a thought (or ten): I am married to a Russian woman (came here when she was 8), have become friends with her friends, many of whom are originally from the former USSR, and am close with her family.
This is obviously a personal look on a big issue but it might be interesting. Multiple of her folks have told me that the main thing people in the US miss is the damaged ego and hurt national pride that is a vital part of thinking about modern Russia.
Everyone there knows that it is a former power. They have seen their borders shrink, thousands (maybe millions?) of people leave for brighter climbs in the US, western Europe and Israel. They have seen state services shrink and find a ready narrative of Russian victimization at the hands of the West and America.
Just like you said, American hawks on Russia do more to empower Putin and their hawks, in this context, than those Russian hawks could hope to do for themselves.
In my larger community, I can say that generally Russians of “parent” age ~50 and above all view western media, Obama and various “facts” like the market-driven slump in oil prices with major suspicion. There is a lot of conspiracy-based belief and disregard for facts as we see them.
Also watch how much Russian opinion is based in finding hypocrisy. If they can find a case where the US or Europe does the same thing as they do, the original point is instantly invalid. So if Russia is displaying aggression in Ukraine, what did the US do in Iraq? If Russia should not play politics with its oil, they will find a clear case where the US did that. And they make the valid point the US would never stand for Russian military support for Jamaica or Mexico or any other neighbor when we do that in Latvia and so on.
There is a very good Vice episode on this call the New Cold War.
It’s just color, but I have a concern that too much saber rattling could lead to a major problem that could be completely avoided.
From JM …
Yeah, this all rings true to me. You have the melding of what was unquestionably a psychic defeat in the denouement of the cold war. National loss, literal loss of territory, people, falling life expectancy national wealth. Just on a staggering number of levels. And then I think overlaying this you have certain aspects of the culture as prone to conspiratorial thinking and then on top of that what I mentioned in the post, the mixture of overreach and myopia on the part of the West.
This is what I’ve never quite understood about post-Cold War US policy. If we basically want to hem the Russians in with security alliances up against every one of their border, I guess that’s a choice we can make. There’s not a lot they can do about it. They’re on their knees. And even apart for the US’s mainly greater respect for democratic norms, an Estonia would certainly prefer to be allied with a great power thousands of miles away than one on their doorstep with which they share a bloody past. So we can do all that. But we shouldn’t be surprised if the reaction is pretty negative.
From TPM Reader BS …
Well put.
It was even in play with the Olympics. We have a swimmer attacking one of their swimmers for doping. Many, many american athletes have been also banned for doping (i mean cumon!). Efimova lives and trains in LA, got some of the banned substances from an American store and here she is crying on tv. She is clearly hurt by all the negative attention and NBC and the chattering class takes great pleasure at tearing another young woman to shreds. It’s like mean girls in the flesh.
I can only imagine how this is playing out in Russian media. I dont even want to ask my mother-in-law.
I sometimes imagine a world where the US actually embraced Russia. Invited it into the modern world. Worked to develop technology with them (clearly they are good at programming!). It could be so hopeful and positive – not to mention bankshots like support in the Middle East.
But never let a 60 year old fight die lol. Let’s keep fighting the Cold War.
From JM …
I agree. But I think the key is that we DID invite them in – but as junior partners. That’s the irony and tragedy of it. Some of that is/was triumphalism on our part. But some of it is just in the nature of the situation. Those GDP numbers are staggering. But being a second rate power in the US imperium was never going to be something that the Russians could accept. This is really the rub of it I think because you have someone that makes a lot of sense from each side. And yet is clearly unworkable.
