Bloomberg/Selzer is out with a new poll this morning showing a straight tie at 46% in a head to head race between Clinton and Trump. Trump actually leads by two points, 43% to 41% when third party candidates are added. For context, the Selzer poll is a highly regarded national phone poll, not one of the many more erratic online polls we’ve seen this cycle.
This result is also generally in line with the ABC/WaPo poll out this weekend which showed Clinton with a two point margin – Clinton 46, Trump 44.
We’re talking about pretty small differences of course. But to the extent that this is a trend, it’s matched by a Muhlenberg poll also out this weekend. A week ago Muhlenberg (again, another high quality, in-state phone poll) showed Clinton with a 9 point advantage for Trump. The new poll had that down to three points.
This race has tightened and untightened so many times now that I hesitate to ascribe a specific cause to it in the news cycle or what the candidates have been doing over the course of the week. But it does seem like we’re back to a new tightening of the numbers after last week when the polls were oscillating in the opposite direction.