I’ll be following the Georgia results here as they come in.
8:26 PM: As long as we’re talking early numbers that could simply be wrong, here’s the way I’d put the current numbers. There’s not much data that is inconsistent with Ossoff taking 50% of the vote. Ossoff was expected to win the early vote. But he seems to be winning it by more than was expected. GOP has to put up pretty solid election day numbers to keep him under 50%. Here’s what the Times Nate Cohn just said on Twitter: “the Election Day vote better be great for the GOP. Because the early vote is simply much better than expected for Ossoff.” That sounds right to me. But he knows how to interpret these numbers and I really don’t.
8:17 PM: I’d say the precinct by precinct data is showing some signs of hope that Ossoff can get over 50%. Impossible to tell but some notes of potential optimism in those numbers. The gist is that he seems to be over-performing, not wildly over-performing, in DeKalb County. But that’s the Dems’ best county in the district.
8:13 PM: Miscellaneous in the moment reports that I can’t draw any clear pattern from.
8:05 PM: You’d think with one suburban district they’d be able to report the results a bit more quickly. Don’t Erdogan me, bro … Late Update: “Poll workers have to collect and drive memory cards from voting machines to county offices. Takes time.” source.
7:59 PM: Impossible to make any firm estimates or predictions based on so little data. But that doesn’t stop people from trying. The folks I trust seem to be split on whether this looks good or not for Ossoff going over 50%. Definitely in the ballpark of what he’d need. But not enough for us to know either way.
7:53 PM: We’re getting the first results out of Georgia. They’re from DeKalb county. And they’re very strong for Ossoff – 71%. But we would expect these first votes to be very strong. These are decent numbers. But don’t be fooled by that high number.