10:06 PM: DeKalb votes are all in. Ossoff improved on Clinton’s number by 1.6% (58.6% > 57%) He’s currently up 1.5% on Clinton’s number in Cobb County (41.4% > 39.9%) with 96% reporting. He’s way up in Fulton but only 16% so that’s largely meaningless at this point.
9:59 PM: Okay, seems pretty clear this is going to a run-off. Almost all the vote is in in Cobb (GOP) and DeKalb (Dem) Counties. Fulton is still mostly out. Trump beat Clinton narrowly there, by about 2.5% points. Ossoff is currently at 50.1% with 50% reporting. So hard to see how he doesn’t fall below 50%.
9:42 PM: Looking more like Ossoff comes in under 50%. Maybe one or two points shy.
9:30 PM: Okay, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Report says we’re going to a run-off, i.e., Ossoff under 50%. I wouldn’t say that’s definitive. Other really good data people aren’t willing to make a prediction yet. But he’s one of the best number crunchers in the business.
9:21 PM: Worth keeping in mind if Ossoff comes in just under 50%: the rest of the Dem field looks to be at upwards of 1%.
9:13 PM: This is going to be really close. Personally, I’m a bit more pessimistic than I was a half hour ago. But over or under 50% still entirely possible.
9:06 PM: I think basically we’re where we’ve been all evening – numbers that are necessary but not sufficient (as Dkos folks put it earlier) for Ossoff to hit 50%. One thing that seems clear now is that the election day vote was very large. In general, that’s a hopeful sign for Republicans since they’re expected to do better on election day rather than early vote. So far though even those election day numbers make 50% still possible for Ossoff. So this isn’t necessarily good or bad for Ossoff but a potentially hopefully sign for GOP to keep Ossoff under 50%.
8:49 PM: We’re still seeing pretty much all data that is consistent with Ossoff getting 50% of the vote but by no means proves that he will.
8:43 PM: BREAKING: We’re going to be looking at number from individual precincts for a while. You’re welcome.
8:34 PM: Ok, opening up a new thread. Where are we? There are some cautiously optimistic signs for Democrats – and in this case I call optimism getting 50%. All the results I’ve seen suggest Ossoff is coming in right in the range he’d need to hit 50%. But in the range. So by no means a sure thing and the uncertainty of special election turnout makes it very hard, really all but impossible to model final results based on this area or that. The best way to put it is that we’re not seeing the kinds of individual precinct results which put Ossoff out of the running for 50%. In the hunt, by no means a sure thing.
