Opinions, Context & Ideas from the TPM Editors TPM Editor's Blog
The Chicken/Barter story hit on April 12th. The two polls prior to that date -- from mid-February and early April -- had Lowden at 47% and 45% of the vote, respectively, in the coming GOP primary.
So that's the pre-barter baseline -- mid-40s.
Remember though that at first Lowden was just recommending barter. Livestock hadn't come into the picture yet. (It was only people like me snarking about it.) It wasn't until April 20th that Lowden actually played the chicken card.
So what happened after that? (See all the data here.)
Two more polls came out in late April -- those had Lowden down to 41% and 38%. Then a poll came out on May 11th that had her at 30%. And the most recent poll, completed four days ago, has her down to 26%. In other words, about a 20 point drop in a month.
For the first time in months she's no longer in the lead.