Predictions from political betting sites are very much ‘take them with a grain of salt’ things of course. But I’ll note that as of this moment, BetFair.com is showing Donald Trump with a 40% chance of winning the GOP nomination and Ted Cruz with a 32% chance. (This site converts the current odds to percentages.) Again, there’s no magic to these sites. They’re best seen as accurate projections of what we might call informed conventional wisdom.
I’m not sure yet whether these numbers tell us anything real about Trump’s chances. This was a good state for Cruz and we’re still to see any real deterioration in Trump’s national numbers. But there’s another dynamic here. Just as the United States helped unravel the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and in so doing helped create al Qaeda, GOP establishment progress stopping Trump has come by way of building up Ted Cruz. I do not think they will be able to easily toss aside the stalking horse they’ve used to blunt Trump’s drive. Virtually every delegate denied to Trump will go to Cruz. And unlike Trump, who may not have the organization or experience or attention span to make sure ‘his’ delegates are his, Cruz’s operation will leave nothing to chance.
As they try to build Cruz into something approaching a delegate tie, what on earth makes anyone think they will be able to up and give the nomination to someone else? It makes no sense. Like I’ve said a few times, you can maybe steal the nomination once. But twice in a single convention? I seriously doubt it.
