Polls just closed in Israel and a raft of exit of polls show a big comeback for Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud, who closed the last two days with a round of racist, anti-Arab Israeli appeals to consolidate the right wing vote in Likud. It seems to have worked. The exit polls don’t all agree. But most show a virtual tie between Labor and Likud in the high 20 seat range. In other words, both major parties seem to have over-performed their numbers.
Obviously exit polls can be wrong. But they have a good record in Israel. And assuming they are broadly accurate, this means that Netanyahu did what he moved heaven and earth over the last four days to do, close the gap with Zionist Camp/Labor.
But it’s not necessarily as clear cut as it might seem. The overwhelming consensus has been that a tie or even a close second amounts to a win for Netanyahu, with him getting the first opportunity to form a government. That is still the best bet. But the over-performance of both major parties means a lot of assumptions go out the door. If both major parties end up at say 28 seats, that means they have a good ten seats that we had been assuming would go to other parties. Just who lost them will be critical.
