At any given political moment there is a big picture — with broad demographic and ideological trends — and then the smaller, more immediate, political world made up of ingenuity and chance — the fact that Saxby Chambliss runs a better campaign than many thought, that Paul Wellstone is cut down tragically in a plane wreck days before the election. Of course, the two blend into each other and influence each other, though they remain at some level distinct. Individual politicians are like small ships on those vast political seas. And the best of 
them can survive and even thrive even when the winds and seas are decidely unfriendly. On balance, though, the winds and currents tell the tale.
What we’re now in the thick of is that small, more immediate, political world, in which the newspaper stories which will appear next Wednesday morning will be affected by the personal qualities of candidates, the decisions party committees make over last minute allocations of funds, and simple random chance.
But let’s not forget that larger picture. And as TPM noted a couple months ago, the best book we’ve read in years on this topic is The Emerging Democratic Majority by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira. You can read the TPM review and recommendation here or pick up a copy of your own at Amazon.
As TPM wrote two months ago, “it’s the most penetrating and prescient look at American politics you’re likely to read for some time. If you favor what Judis and Teixeira call the politics of the ‘progressive center’ the news is quite good.”
