Surprising numbers out today. Zogby has Kerry not simply surging but actually in the lead in Iowa: Kerry 22%, Dean 21%, Gephardt 21%. Especially in a daily tracking poll a point difference means less than nothing (note to statisticians: don’t even say it). But this does square with what a lot of people have been saying about Kerry’s move in the state.
(Also, with the numbers that close, I’d want to hear more both about the ground organization of each candidate and how regionally concentrated their support is in the state.)
Meanwhile ARG’s New Hampshire tracking poll has Dean 29%, Clark 24%, Kerry 15%.
The common denominator seems pretty clear: Dean’s support is falling — not precipitously, but measurably — and at least some Dean supporters appear to be going to his near rivals in each state.