Do we need to rewrite the script? This is really getting interesting.
Today Zogby has John Kerry opening up a five point lead over Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt in Iowa. The numbers: Kerry 24%, Dean 19%, Gephardt 19%, Edwards 17%.
Even more interesting however are the ARG numbers out of New Hampshire. Today’s numbers there are Dean 28%, Clark 23%, Kerry 16%.
Clark is now a mere five points behind Dean. But, again, Kerry is the bigger story.
He’s moved up a point or two a day each day this week. And the internals on those numbers tell an interesting tale. As the ARG analysis says: “The drop in ballot preference for Howard Dean has stabilized and women voters who have switched from Dean are giving John Kerry a lift at the expense of Wesley Clark.”
In other words, Dean has lost support. And most of it has gone to Clark so far. But Clark is having a real problem getting female voters who leave Dean to come to him. And they’re going to Kerry.
If those Zogby numbers out of Iowa are real and Kerry wins the caucuses … well, let’s wait and see.
