It was supposed to be a blockbuster year for Democrats as they marched to retake the Senate, but the Democrats’ are finding their job a little tougher than first expected.
In Florida, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-FL) has faced attacks for embellishing his resume and then, making matters worse, the incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) jumped back in the race. In Ohio, former Gov. Ted Strickland has struggled to make up a fundraising gap against incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) and in Pennsylvania, Democrats ended up spending valuable resources –more than $1 million– boosting Katie McGinty in a primary against former Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA).
If Democrats are having a harder time than expected in a few marquee races in 2016, none of it may matter in the time of Donald Trump.
This week, polls showed the Republican presidential candidate’s campaign in free fall –high single-digit and sometimes double-digit deficits– that even the strongest senatorial candidates likely won’t be able to weather.
In Pennsylvania, a Franklin and Marshall College poll found Clinton had an 11 point lead. In Florida, a Suffolk University poll found Clinton was up 6 points in a head-to-head match-up with Trump. In New Hampshire –where Democrats recruited a popular two-term sitting governor to run for the Senate– Clinton was up 15 points against Trump.
Those are margins that get very difficult for Republican senators to outrun, experts say.
“You cannot just withstand a blowout,” said Rob Jesmer, a former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “I could see a scenario where we lose the White House and hold the Senate, but if Trump is just getting destroyed even if our guys can outperform the ballot at three to four or even five points, it is very problematic.”
Democrats need five states to win the Senate majority back in November and four to tie it. They are most bullish on states like Wisconsin and Illinois, which seem to be trending blue. Their next best hope seems to be in New Hampshire and in Indiana, where the last-minute recruiting of Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) could be enough to bring Democrats to a tie in the Senate. If Clinton wins the White House, four seats will be enough to give them the majority on tie votes.
From there, however, the road to the majority relies heavily on hard races against incumbents in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania where the saving grace for Democrats may be that the presidential campaign will dominate the airwaves.
In Ohio, former one-term Gov. Ted Strickland has struggled to to raise campaign cash as outside interest groups supporting Portman dump more money into the race than any other Senate contest so far, according to Open Secrets . Making matters worse, this week, Portman got his fourth union endorsement, a sign core Democratic constituencies may not be confident in Strickland.
But polls still show the race is tight. And Senate observers say that all comes down to the top of the ticket.
“Portman has gotten a lot of good press lately, and he’s earned it,” said Kyle Kondik, a Senate race expert based at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “On a lot of different marks Portman is a superior candidate to Strickland, but Strickland may have the benefit of the top of the ticket.”
Even in Pennsylvania, where Clinton is up 11, but McGinty is just up a single point, Kondik predicts the mere perception of a blowout at the top of the ticket though could hurt Republican turnout in November and favor Democrats.
“If the winds are blowing the Democrats’ way it seems hard to think that all these 50/50 Senate races are going to break the other way,” Kondik said.
Of course it is a long way to November. But, getting just to five seats is still problematic for Democrats. This was supposed to be the cycle that Democrats dominated Republicans as the party faces a deeply unfavorable map in 2018. At one point, some Democrats were talking about taking 8-10 Senate seats. Next cycle, nearly a dozen vulnerable senators are up for re-election in red states like Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. It may require Democrats to look beyond their original map to places like Missouri, Arizona and North Carolina where Democratic challenger Deborah Ross just out fundraised Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) in the second quarter.
“It is important for Democrats to run up the score and not just win the Senate and that looks difficult at this point,” Kondik said.
I live in Ohio and just about every other TV ad is pro-Portman/anti-Strickland. The money difference is obvious.
And the ads started a year ago
Pleased to see this sentiment at the article’s end.
(Considering the writer.)
And also as this was the first thought I had when reading the headline.
(D)s don’t think of themselves as ruthless.
But we need to muster all the ruth we can.
In terms of being able to enact as much of HRC’s agenda in the first 2yrs as possible.
If I’m correct? She’ll be ready-to-roll out policy almost immediately.
She can work with most of the infrastructure BHO has in place.
We (D)s simply have to give her the Senate majority to do so.
(As if I need remind everyone of the SCOTUS appointment?)
When I mentioned ‘ruthless’ above? It can mean any number of actions.
Volunteering time or donating money.
Assisting individuals in acquiring ID in those places where required.
Driving individuals to-and-from polling places.
Ruthless can mean ‘efficient’.
Such an opportunity. Seems a lifetime in coming.
jw1
Close our eyes and think of the Notorious RBG
Whoever is paying for the ads must think so.