Scott Walker’s Re-Election Campaign Is All About 2016

There’s a very real chance that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) could lose in his campaign for re-election to Democratic challenger Mary Burke (D). But even if he wins, it may be by how much he wins that could decide Walker’s fate for his rumored 2016 hopes.

The Wisconsin gubernatorial race has continued to be one of the tightest and most high-profile races of the cycle. Democrats see it as an opportunity to knock off one of the GOP’s favorite governors who openly declared war on a key Democratic base: labor unions. Democrats say that the fact that the race is tight is an especially bad sign for Walker.

“I’d say it’s absolutely hard to be an incumbent in any race but I would say it’s also a really terrible position to be in as an incumbent to be underwater in favorability for months and to be in a dead heat with somebody who has really not been elective office before,” Wisconsin Democratic Party Communications Director Melissa Baldauff said.

Some Democrats also say that this is a very real chance to crush a potential top-tier presidential candidate before the informal 2016 campaign season really begins. A lingering question throughout the Wisconsin gubernatorial race though has been if Walker does lose, does he lose any hope of running for president? What about if he wins but by a small margin?

“I think if he wins, [whether] by a small margin or a bigger margin, I think he still faces a significant climb to the presidency,” said Patrick Guarasci, a Democratic operative and consultant in Wisconsin.

With about a month until the election, the TPM Polltracker gives Walker a slim 1.6 point lead over Burke, enough to give Walker caution and fuel the real possibility that he could lose. Walker, as a result, has responded to attacks from EMILY’s List and Democrats attacking Walker on contraception and abortion issues. Walker’s response ad was a clear move to defend himself among women, a group in which Burke has had the advantage (a recent Marquette poll has her leading among women by 14 points).

Burke, despite getting hammered over a plagiarism scandal involving a campaign staffer, still stands as a strong candidate in the race. And Walker has faced scandals of his own.

In particular, Guarasci mentioned the John Doe investigations that have given Walker grief even before the midterm elections really became serious for him.

“Even if he wins, he still faces some significant hills to climb. If he wins by a small margin it raise significant questions about his viability but knowing him I don’t think it will prevent him from running,” Gaurasci added. “He is running for president and he intends to launch his campaign shortly after he runs for governor.”

Democrats are eager to say that Walker clearly has presidential aspirations and even other top Republican lawmakers have conceded that Walker has left that door open. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) said that the prospect of Walker running might help Walker “raise his profile.” Walker also, notably, recently refused to definitively say he would serve another full term if re-elected.

“I think obviously if he isn’t re-elected I don’t think there’s any real room for speculation that he would run for president and be successful,” University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee political science professor Thomas Holbrook told TPM on Tuesday. “I think that if there’s any doubt that a candidate couldn’t even carry his own state in a presidential race I don’t think he’s going to be a very good candidate at the national level.”

But if Walker wins, it will be how he wins that will be a big indicator of his chances in a 2016 primary.

“I guess the question from Walker’s point of view would be: if you can win a purple-to-somewhat blue state as Wisconsin is (with some debate about whether it’s purple or blue) how much does that count in your favor regardless of margin as opposed to running up a big win in Texas?” Marquette University Law School polling director Charles Franklin told TPM. “Would you rather, just in electoral terms, rather have Rick Perry win huge or Scott Walker win Wisconsin by 5, 6, or 7 but do it three times. I think that’s a legitimate consideration either way.”

Meanwhile, national Democrats are continuing to help Burke. Party favorite First Lady Michelle Obama recently campaigned for Burke and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is scheduled to stump for her on Saturday.

At this point, the way Burke closes the gap and pulls out a win in the race is through getting people to just come out and vote, said Karin Johanson, who previously served as now-Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s campaign manager and was more recently the campaign manager for Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis.

“Get people out. Get people out and keep articulating her vision. It’s just hard to know in the last couple of weeks — what are the factors to make voters move in one direction or the other,” Johanson said.