Could New Hampshire Be The Sleeper Senate Race Of 2014?

The New Hampshire Senate race is rarely discussed as a competitive contest that could swing control of the chamber. The Democratic incumbent, Jeanne Shaheen, is an institution in the state, while her Republican opponent, Scott Brown, is new to it.

But the race is closer than you might think. The three most recent nonpartisan polls — by New England College, SurveyUSA and WMUR — put Shaheen up by an average of 3 points. Her lead, which has tightened since the summer, is steady but it’s narrow, and most polls have her below the 50 percent threshold. That’s hardly safe territory.

On Friday, the well-respected Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the race from “lean Democratic” to “tossup,” deeming it one of 10 contests poised to determine Senate control. According to recent surveys, the race is about as tight as closely-watched contests in Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska (states where, unlike the Granite State, Republicans are leading).

“Polling would consistently put the race in low-mid single digits,” said Jennifer Duffy, Senate editor for the Cook Political Report. “That’s the biggest criteria for our tossup column.”

So, how has Brown — a former Massachusetts senator hit with carpetbagging allegations since he entered the race — narrowed the gap and made this a real contest?

Four factors stand out. One is that voters have tuned in late, as they typically do in New Hampshire, Duffy said. The second is that President Obama’s popularity is underwater by 8 to 13 points in the state, which hurts Shaheen. The third is that New Hampshire is “especially sensitive” to the national political environment, which has been harder on Democrats lately. The fourth is that the Granite State — home to the first presidential primaries every four years — is suited in some ways to Brown’s retail-oriented style.

“It’s sort of tailor made to Brown’s strengths. It’s a retail state. So Scott Brown’s going to spend every day in coffee shops, bars — wherever people gather,” Duffy said. “And final piece is both parties are spending money there. Republicans see a path to victory for him there enough that they’ll make an investment. … So while we don’t see a big wave out there, if there were a ripple it might come to shore in Portsmouth.”

Still, Brown is the one with an uphill climb in the final two weeks before Election Day. Since the summer, he has tried to exploit numerous issues that have sparked national anxiety, including the unaccompanied minors crisis, the rise of the so-called Islamic State and, most recently, the Ebola virus reaching U.S. shores. None of them have given him enough of a boost to pull ahead of Shaheen, a popular former governor of the state.

“Shaheen is such a known quantity. She’s been part of politics in the state for such a long time. And she’s running a really good campaign,” Duffy said. “The only election she’s ever lost was the Senate in 2002.”

Having fallen behind in key swing states like Iowa and Colorado, and polling narrowly ahead in North Carolina, Democrats badly need to hold New Hampshire if they want to keep control of the Senate. If the Granite State falls, it’s probably going to be a brutal election night for Democrats, who don’t dispute that the New Hampshire race has tightened, but are sounding a confident note about their prospects.

“[Scott Brown’s] run for Senate in New Hampshire has wavered between insulting and embarrassing,” said Justin Barasky of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, “and his anti-middle class and anti-women record will be one of the many reasons Granite state voters reelect Jeanne Shaheen.”