There was a time when voters in South Carolina could be counted on to settle the Republican nomination score.
In 10 days, we’ll see if they can untangle this GOP primary mess.
Between 1980 and 2008, South Carolinians accurately picked the Republican nominee every time. Then, in 2012, they selected southern son Newt Gingrich in a hot potato contest when Mitt Romney eventually became the GOP nominee.
“Right now, I just see it as really muddled,” David Woodard, a political science professor and pollster based at Clemson University, said Wednesday morning as attention shifted from New Hampshire to South Carolina. “I don’t know where we are going to be. I don’t know if we will be the old state that picks the nominee or if we are going to pick the flavor of the week.”
With a mess of candidates competing to gain traction, TPM’s PollTracker Average shows Donald Trump leading by 17.1 percentage points over second-place Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Trump has had the lead in TPM’s PollTracker Average since July, but there has been no new public polling in South Carolina since before the Iowa caucus.
“Trump has finally won a primary and he looks formidable, but he is also a Yankee from New York and they haven’t done well down here,” Woodard said.
Heading into South Carolina, Cruz is perceived to have one of the stronger ground games as he’s been working to aggressively court the state’s evangelical community. In Iowa, Cruz won the caucus with Christian voters who make up 65 percent of South Carolina primary voters, according to a 2012 primary exit poll. But Cruz is not the only senator who has made inroads in the state.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) has earned the powerful endorsements of influential Rep. Trey Gowdy and Sen. Tim Scott, giving him credibility in both the northern and southern sections of the state as he seeks to make up ground after his devastating fifth-place finish in New Hampshire. But Rubio’s former mentor, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, is also eyeing South Carolina as his best chance to finally break through. The state cemented both his father’s and brother’s presidential nominations.
As for second-place New Hampshire finisher John Kasich, Woodard said he is not sure if there is enough grassroots organization to turn his victory in the moderate Northeast into a competitive Southern edge.
“Kasich has a great record,” Woodard said, but he is not sure voters really know that yet and given the time crunch it is unclear he can make that sell in 10 days.
Well that was interesting. The bit has a chart that shows Trump on the rise with a commanding lead, Cruz slightly off and at least 15 points below Trump but claims Trump’s going to have problems because he’s a “yankee”. He’s not…he’s from New York but I don’t get what the point is in refuting the obvious. Trump will win SC unless there is a huge shift that’s so far not palpable.
It’s comforting to know that the reasonable alternative, Rubio, has the endorsement of statesman Trey “Draco” Malfoy. Perhaps the South Carolina wiz can serve as attorney general in the “moderate” Rubio Administration.
South Carolina…I suppose this means the decorum that has characterized the GOP primary so far is about to end?
Picking eight out of nine is still a pretty good return.
But all bets are off with this election year.
Well, Trump is still a Yankee, so there’s that.
/s