In my last post I mentioned this data analysis GOP pollster and consultant Pat Ruffini has put together looking at Senate polling going back through the last four cycles, so 2018 through 2024. Ruffini is a very partisan Republican in all the meanings of that word. But I think of him as broadly reliable when it comes to compiling and analyzing hard data. His analysis, probably not surprisingly, shows that polling in aggregate over-estimated Democrats in each cycle. Needless to say, there’s a lot of “cope” in this analysis, reassuring fretful Republicans that it’s not as bad as it looks. But I was curious because this at least broadly matches with my observations. Not always but more often than not.
You can read the analysis here. You have to subscribe to his Substack to read the whole thing. But you can get the gist before you get to the paywall. I’ve reached out to several polling analysts whose judgment I trust to get their sense of the analysis. So perhaps I’ll have more to say based on responses.
In any case, here are the main takeaways.
Read MoreToday I’m going to discuss two tidbits from the world of polling. In a second post I’m going to discuss an interesting and, for Democrats, somewhat chastening look at the last four cycles of Senate polling compiled by GOP pollster/consultant Pat Ruffini. But first some stunning news today about an out-of-nowhere polling outfit called Median Strategies. They polled a number of races but their survey showing DSA-backed Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong with a 23-point lead got the most attention. Today the firm announced it is ceasing operations, says it is withdrawing all its previous polls and says they should not be treated as “genuine polling data.”
They then go on to make this almost unbelievable statement: “Median Strategies was created as a short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem wihtout independent verification.” They then follow with a “Thank you for your understanding.”
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