Update III: This is still sketchy reporting. But reporters are going back to listen closely to the Secret Service chatter in real time. They appear to hear one volley of shots, then Trump goes down. Then there’s another volley and Secret Service appear to say “shooter down.” Again, this is all choppy real-time reporting, possibly subject to change. But this would possibly explain why there was such a rapid all clear only a minute or two after the incident happened. CNN’s John Miller said he thought there was someone in custody. But again, early reporting subject to change.

Update II: Further reporting on CNN that Trump is “fine,” apparently getting checked out at a local hospital. But all signs suggest this is just a once over as opposed to getting specific medical treatment. But again, that’s speculation. The statement from spokesperson Steven Cheung is that he is “fine” and getting examined. It’s worth remembering that not infrequently in situations like this there can be injuries that aren’t detected at first. So doctors will want to do a thorough examination.

Update: Secret Service says former president is “safe”.

Original Alert: As you may have seen there appears to have been a shooting of some sort at a Trump rally just a very short time ago. Let me say what we know. A Trump rally was just underway in Butler, PA. There were a series of loud bangs. Trump appeared to grab his right ear and dropped to the ground. Dropped in the sense of jumped for cover, not collapsed. He was then swarmed by Secret Service agents and hustled to his armored limousine. As he was hustled off the stage he was clearly fully alert. He appeared to have blood around his right ear, which is the part of the body he appeared to grab as things were happening.

It appears that someone fired shots at Trump, though we don’t know that yet.

Another detail is that authorities appeared to quickly give an all clear to the crowd after Trump was taken from the scene. That would seem to suggest that whoever did this was captured very quickly. Though to be clear, that part is purely an inference on my part.

At present there is no official word on Trump’s status, though I want to emphasize that Trump did not appear in any way incapacitated or injured as he was taken away beside the blood on the ear. He appeared to be walking fully under his own power but surrounded by Secret Service agents providing a cordon around him as he was evacuated.

We will bring you more information as we learn more.

I’ve done so many big picture posts in recent days I’m going to let myself do a more zoomed in one. In all the antic craziness of the last two weeks we’ve seen a number of people, either cheering or dreading, saying that not only will Joe Biden lose but he’ll bring down Congress and all sorts of down ballot Democrats. I believe, just intuitively, that these claims are almost all the product of media hysteria, in some cases fanned by Trump campaign trash talk. But if you look down at the nitty gritty of public and private polling there’s something more specific happening, a set of data mixed with non-crazy but still possible assumptions.

Yesterday I heard from TPM Reader GZ in response to the Backchannel email newsletter. (I always encourage you to write to me. You can do so simply by replying to my newsletter. Comes right to my personal inbox.) “Even though you aren’t saying Joe should drop out you are participating in the fun of talking about it,” he wrote. “Giving air to negativity.”

I think a lot of people are having fun with this. Many of the most prominent journalistic voices. But I felt the need to correct the misapprehension. “If you think I’m participating in any fun you gravely mistake my thoughts and profound anguish over this … The last two weeks have been pure agony,” I wrote. As I went on to explain, I don’t get into my personal experience of any of this because it’s simply not relevant to what I’m writing. But I took both sides of this exchange as examples of the toll this extended and seemingly frozen crisis has had on so many people.

Today I have been corresponding with a number of readers about, well … what’s happening? Like, some want this and some want that. But everyone is wondering wtf is happening or, to put it more specifically, why the whole thing hasn’t been decided yet.