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September 11, 2019 2:50 p.m.
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I haven’t run these numbers myself. But I think JL captures a key issue here. Indeed, I think his analysis understates it, since for well into 2016, large numbers of Republicans were furiously opposed to Donald Trump getting anywhere near the White House. That greatly held down his numbers in late 2015, early 2016 head-to-head match-ups.

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