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First, I’m always hesitant to recommend people. Because inevitably they’ll say something dumb and people will blame me for it. But I’m really enjoying Aaron Blake’s campaign commentary and number-crunching — consistently shrewd and considered. His column today focuses me on a basic point: it’s very hard to see how President Trump can win reelection in a high turnout head to head race. He’s just stuck way too far down below 50% public support. This is my general thinking of course because, as I’ve been arguing, Trump is in much worse shape than people seem to imagine, at least until quite recently. But it’s worth zooming in on those qualifiers: high turnout and head to head race.
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