Trump Sees Mixed Convention Bump In National Polls

Donald Trump accepts the Republican nomination for President of the United States of America on the final day of the Republican National Convention at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH, USA, on July 21, 2016.The G... Donald Trump accepts the Republican nomination for President of the United States of America on the final day of the Republican National Convention at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH, USA, on July 21, 2016.The GOP end their convention tonight with Donald Trump and Mike Pence representing the Republicans versus the Democratic Party ticket. Photo by Dennis Van Tine/Sipa USA MORE LESS
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Coming out of the Republican convention, Donald Trump took the lead from Hillary Clinton in a CNN/ORC national poll and in a CBS News poll of registered voters released on Monday morning.

Trump leads Clinton by three points, 48-45, after Clinton led Trump by 7 points, 49-42 in the CNN/ORC poll released earlier in July.

When third party candidates are introduced in the question in the CNN/ORC poll, it’s Trump 44, Clinton 39, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson 9, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 3.

Trump also saw a boost in favorability. In Monday’s CNN/ORC poll, 46 percent of voters had a positive view of Trump, up from 39 percent before the convention.

In the CBS poll released on Monday, Trump led Clinton by one point, 43-42, including voters who are leaning toward Trump or Clinton. When not including voters who only lean toward a candidate, Trump and Clinton tied 42-42, compared to a 40-40 tie in the CBS News poll released earlier in July.

When Johnson is added to the question, it’s Trump 40, Clinton 39, and Johnson 12.

Trump’s favorability also saw a bump in the CBS poll — 34 percent viewed Trump favorably, up from 30 percent earlier in July.

ORC International surveyed 882 registered voters July 22-24 via phone with a margin of error plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

For the CBS poll, SSRS of Media, PA surveyed 1,118 registered voters July 22-24 via phone with a margin of error plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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Notable Replies

  1. Avatar for jtx jtx says:

    As bad as that convention was this result is absurd.

    America the land of fear and hate.

  2. National polls, especially including the rabid GOP south, mean little. Electing a president is a state by state electoral strategy only.

  3. Avatar for pine pine says:

    Here we go again Trump with two(2) active lawsuits going against him and he is leading ? MSM trying to keep this thing going.All day yesterday with the Democratic Convention hours away it was all Trump all the time or trouble brewing for the Democrats with the email dump and Wasserman Schultz troubles with the party.

  4. Excellent work, Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Years a go you determined to give us a candidate who is widely disliked and ethically compromised. As a result what should have been a wave election against the most idiotic candidate in US history will end up being a narrow victory at best, and a trump victory at worst. Well done, DWS!! Your cronysim crushes us all

  5. Avatar for dswx dswx says:

    “Trump leads Clinton by three points…”
    “…with a margin of error plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.”

    So even after all the huffing and puffing by the GOP and before the Democratic convention, it is essentially a statistical tie as the margin of error is greater than Trump’s “lead”. Of course that won’t fit the media’s meme so Trump is now “leading”. If this was the other way around with Clinton up by 3 points with a MOE of 3.5 points it would read, “Clinton/Trump tied!”

    We got through this every four years with TPM and the rest of the media always tilting polls to lean toward the GOP when possible. If anyone in charge at TPM actually cared about integrity they would require all reporters to take a basic class in polls and learn what a margin of error means,

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